光明俊伟 尚新求变——简论金末元初杨奂的散文

杨奂是金末元初的著名文学家,其散文作品虽然现存数量不多,但质量颇佳。杨奂散文风格光明俊伟,而在构思和表现手法上,体现出尚新求变的特点。     

论消灭时效与抵押权期限

债权因消灭时效届满 ,抵押权人未行使抵押权 ,其抵押权会因此消灭 ?还是怎样 ?依时效理论、物权原理分析 ,该抵押权既不会因债权时效消灭而消灭 ,也不能长期永久存在 ,除斥期间的设计 ,是确定该抵押权期限的具体办法     

人与结构 ——结构主义对主体之人的终结

结构主义把自然科学的“结构”思想在人文科学领域作形而上学的误用，通过对语言、历史、人类心灵、知识文化的“结构”分析，实现了理论上的人与语言、历史、知识文化关系的颠倒，把人置于一个非主体的地位，并宣称传统人道主义的人已死亡、终结，希图以此拯救传统人道主义造成的现代性困境。然而，结构主义思想在理论上是不完善的，且对人“理论上”的结构化、物化理解，将加剧主体人“事实上”的僵化以至终结。     

Joint analysis of longitudinal data comprising repeated measures and times to events

In biomedical and public health research, both repeated measures of biomarkers Y as well as times T to key clinical events are often collected for a subject. The scientific question is how the distribution of the responses [ T , Y | X ] changes with covariates X . [ T | X ] may be the focus of the estimation where Y can be used as a surrogate for T . Alternatively, T may be the time to drop-out in a study in which [ Y | X ] is the target for estimation. Also, the focus of a study might be on the effects of covariates X on both T and Y or on some underlying latent variable which is thought to be manifested in the observable outcomes. In this paper, we present a general model for the joint analysis of [ T , Y | X ] and apply the model to estimate [ T | X ] and other related functionals by using the relevant information in both T and Y . We adopt a latent variable formulation like that of Fawcett and Thomas and use it to estimate several quantities of clinical relevance to determine the efficacy of a treatment in a clinical trial setting. We use a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to estimate the model's parameters. We illustrate the methodology with an analysis of data from a clinical trial comparing risperidone with a placebo for the treatment of schizophrenia.     

电商与快递跨界经营的理论基础与现实分析

电商诉求摆脱快递制约造成的“短板”效应跨界快递，快递谋求新的“利润源”跨界电商，电商与快递的跨界经营成为网购业的“新常态”。供应链销售端上下游的竞合关系为两者跨界提供了理论基础，但现实中双方的跨界行为又面临诸多风险和挑战，跨界并非所有企业最好的选择，不同企业应根据自身情况选择跨界与否及采用什么模式跨界。在中国网购市场增速趋缓但依然保持较高增长的情况下，电商与快递的跨界经营还将持续一段时间，但电商与快递行业内外洗牌趋势势不可挡，两者的跨界最终将演变为融合。     

康德德性论的价值

康德是一位真正文如其人的思想家。“普遍的立法形式”、“人是目的”、“意志自律”是康德的三条“道德律令”。虽然康德的德性论有过于理想化、抽象化、形式化诸方面的缺点 ,但是不影响其在伦理、思想史、哲学家思想史上具有卓越的地位 ,不影响其对于我国社会主义市场经济条件下的道德建设的指导意义。     

试论中国书法在古典意义上的终结

从文化生存空间来看，中国书法在古典意义上的衰落以至终结，主要表现在以下4个方面：第一，毛笔已经退出了实用的历史舞台。第二，以书取仕的教育考试制度不复存在。第三，古典诗歌的衰微。第四，传统文化精神的失落。     

俄罗斯土地他物权的立法及争议评述

俄罗斯选择了市场经济体制作为改革的目标模式,加强财产利用已经成为不可忽视的趋势。民法典和土地法典对土地的永久使用权、终生继承占有权、对他人土地的限制使用权的规定,较完整地构成了俄罗斯的现代土地他物权制度,也体现出俄罗斯根据本国的需要对土地他物权的立法所作的必要调整。     

论美国冷战任务的完成

冷战不仅仅是美国与苏联的事情;美苏冷战的结束不代表美国冷战任务的完成;美国冷战任务完成的标志应该是使得社会主义国家政权在全球消失,并在这些国家和地区建立起符合美国标准的资本主义制度.因此,在东欧、独联体原社会主义国家和地区以及当前的社会主义国家,美国冷战任务的完成情况具有不同特点.总体是:美国还在推进冷战任务完成的过程中.     

End‐of‐Life Inventory Decisions for Consumer Electronics Service Parts

We consider a consumer electronics manufacturer's problem of controlling the inventory of spare parts in the final phase of the service life cycle. The final phase starts when the part production is terminated and continues until the last service contract or warranty period expires. Placing final orders for service parts is considered to be a popular tactic to satisfy demand during this period and to mitigate the effect of part obsolescence at the end of the service life cycle. Previous research focuses on repairing defective products by replacing the defective parts with properly functioning spare ones. However, for consumer electronic products there typically is considerable price erosion while repair costs stay steady over time. As a consequence, there might be a point in time at which the unit price of the product drops below the repair costs. If so, it is more cost effective to adopt an alternative policy to meet service demands toward the end of the final phase, such as offering customers a new product of the similar type or a discount on a next generation product. This study examines the cost trade‐offs of implementing alternative policies for the repair policy and develops an exact expression for the expected total cost function. Using this expression, the optimal final order quantity and switching time from repair to an alternative policy can be determined simultaneously. Numerical analysis of a real world case sheds light on the cost benefits of these policies and also yields insights into the quantitative importance of the various cost parameters.